• mikesal57
    61
    Does/Did anybody do work with Swarms?
    Please share some of the good/bad points you've incurred..

    thx
    Mike
  • mikesal57
    61
    Question:

    When your down to your target Ants...say for example 50......
    Now, out of those 50 Ants say 18 are above their starting bankroll of $1000
    Do you go into the Swarm and delete the non-profit 32 Ants?
  • mikesal57
    61
    In going thru videos and my own Swarms , I will post what " I believe " decisions...

    #1) Strategies that involve adding Ants....I say no to those...Why?....Because many of the newly created Ants are there at the end of the run making them "not tested " over a long period.

    Comments?
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    Question:

    When your down to your target Ants...say for example 50......
    Now, out of those 50 Ants say 18 are above their starting bankroll of $1000
    Do you go into the Swarm and delete the non-profit 32 Ants?
    mikesal57

    1. No. This is a common mistake: I want the best (or better) ants. You must get through your head that what makes the top ant(s) better is that they have a combination of good strategy and uniqueness.

    2. If you can buy into that, then you realize that the the 1st ant could be knocked down several spots in a hurry if another ant that is enough like him shows up. Suddenly, he is splitting his hits with another ant!

    3. Now, if you're getting that, it is a quick trip to understand that no single ant is the best and, therefore, no single ant is the worst RELATIVE TO THE REAL WORLD. Their bestness is only relative to their known universe.

    4. The entire purpose is to have a full spectrum of ants in the swarm. It is the SWARM'S synergistic output that matters.
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    #1) Strategies that involve adding Ants....I say no to those...Why?....Because many of the newly created Ants are there at the end of the run making them "not tested " over a long period.mikesal57

    That is logical. Thus, stop adding ants and get the swarm to stabilize.
  • Gino
    32
    The Ant Stakes
    is there a living human being who owns a telephone and having invested a whole lotta time in ants
    has become a rich uncle?
    if so please call me and i will give you a list of ten recent races that i had a betting interest in....
    i would love to see your results...i have a very open mind....
  • Gino
    32
    lest this post be misunderstood as dubious or snarky:
    in recent months i have revamped my approach to handicapping certain types of races....having
    spent a large portion of my life in or around racetracks, racebooks, and cyberville, i have been knowing many many kinds of horseplayers, ridiculous and sublime, richer and poorer...some friends and some acquaintances...a couple of geniuses and a bunch of idiots...but i have never known
    anyone who handicaps and bets using the swarm mentality, thus my invitation for a telephonic
    conversation..not knowing a Swarmcapper does not mean that i am dubious about the concept,
    it just means i have never had a meaningful dialogue with anyone employing this approach to
    picking winners...my "list of races" is just a handful of recent races that required unconventional
    thinking to arrive at a successful outcome....Swarms are decidely non-ordinary, and thus my interest
    in picking a rich uncle's brain....
    for those of you investigating any and all means of improving and, one would hope, streamlining
    the contender selection process, i am here to help in any way i can....given the ecumenical nature
    of this latest DS BBS and recognizing the inherent one room skoolhouse blues, i am hoping to
    huddle up with a swarmer who is confident enough in the process to school me with his or her
    selection outcomes, certain horses meaning certain things to certain people, if you know what
    i mean..
  • mikesal57
    61
    Gino...

    I'm pursuing this path (for now) because Dave told me to take a look at it. I am always game for a challenge. I ran into a post where Dave stated he did a months worth of NY races and made money at a $25 mutual average. I just found that video and sure as hell he did......but...he moved on "because it wasn't in his business model" to continue.....If I was making a profit , I would stand on my head to continue collecting.......
  • Gino
    32
    My gut feeling is that a Swarmi Master who can find those kinds of bettable horses is more
    likely to be watching Mystery Science 3000 than anything else....ergo my interest in some
    conceptual collaboration with a process master...you want to bet on unconventional horses you got to
    think like those little guys in the back row....double sawbuck plus Ants ain't getting fed table sugar?

    Red Knave, where is you?
  • mikesal57
    61
    Thus, stop adding ants and get the swarm to stabilize.Dave Schwartz

    Dave....How do you 'Stabilize'?
  • Dave Schwartz
    46


    Now this is an excellent addition to the first post - which I wasn't so found of.

    Everyone has to find an approach that fits there style.
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    Dave....How do you 'Stabilize'?mikesal57

    You train without adding ants. A few may die but that won't hurt.

    Also, remember that even if you let a few new ants be born, they will have so little money that their bets will be tiny and have very little impact.
  • mikesal57
    61
    Putting in a lot of work here.......

    Outcome looking promising....(so far)
    Those one horse plays I was debating to pass or play....looks like I have an answer
    This is my real 1st day in play....7plyphpvdoo0jxzg.jpg
  • Gino
    32
    verrry nice MSal-
    a huge confidence booster from The Gino Skool of Voodoo Economics is to embark on
    on such a journey with a reasonable expectation of success...
    calculate your paper play with each horse being worth $10...dutch your two horses off of the ML...
    simpleton 60/40 math with a futuristic toe in the door of reality...
    Thusly:
    you won 4/7 races, betting on 12 piggles..
    you invested $120
    you won $236.50 ($47.70; $28.80; $28.00; $61.80)
    your profit was $116.50
    you are winning 57% with a 97% ROI...

    feel better, you should!!
    MANANA!!!
  • mikesal57
    61
    Thxs Gino....

    this was for you and I dont like Mystery Science.......

    Hmmmm

    Is there such a thing
  • Kevroc
    18
    Blaspheme!

    MST3K is one of the gifts from the Gods that we never deserved!
  • mikesal57
    61
    Dave...

    Need some help....
    This is my idea.....
    With the ability to do "todays card" and the "what wins" approach...I'd like to do the same with "Swarms" approach.
    How does the Swarms work in HSH to get the probabilities ? do they average out weights and factors to get a final product?
    I want to print out todays card...apply swarms to it and then I'll figure the rest to get my daily plays...Its better than running each race manually.

    thxs

    Mike
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    Swarms work just like the public at the race track. Collectively, the public makes a pretty good set of probabilities.

    Each swarm element is a "simple" system that uses a single object to handicap. The elements bet their money into a pool. The way they bet the money (i.e. the percentage of the pool on each horse) represents the probabilities.
  • mikesal57
    61


    How can I find what makes up that simple object?
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    For each ant? They are drawn randomly from whatever factors are turned on.
  • mikesal57
    61
    what is this for?
    make Objests at bottom and the numbers you can choose?

    zls5xjjagtib06yp.jpg
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    NO. The goal is to use the probabilities developed by the entire swarm. Tying to pick out the best ants is a bad idea.
  • mikesal57
    61
    OK...got it...so theres no way to use speadsheet with swarms like I thought..thxs
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    None that I can imagine.
  • mikesal57
    61
    So Ants can use negative weights...but....we cant in objects?
  • mikesal57
    61
    Hi Guys....

    Still working with Swarms.
    I found the way to work Swarms via Dynamically...It is not easy.....there are about 35 clicks to make including changing a file name to make it all work...it takes less than 4-5 mins a race

    Why go this route?

    Well, its almost doing it like the Pickmaster way but:
    1) You can now use ranks and raw factors together
    2) You can have 100,500, 1000 handicappers helping you (ants) :)
    3) The only added object is the FTS, keeping it very simple

    Going to work on comparing both procedures to see which is better..

    Later
    Mike
  • mikesal57
    61
    Dynamic Swarms

    Gulf 3/31....Bet Top 2

    1...3-4-1
    2...1-2-4
    3...1-2-7
    4...1-2-4
    5...5-3-1
    6...6-1-4
    7...2-1-6
    8...1-2-6
    9...5-2-1
    10..5-6-1
    11..5-1-9

    GL to me :)
  • mikesal57
    61
    RESULTS....Bet Top 2

    1...3-4-1 ..... x
    2...1-2-4 .......... #1 scratched ...... #4 $15.00
    3...1-2-7 ..... x
    4...1-2-4 ..... x
    5...5-3-1 .......... #3 $19.20
    6...6-1-4 ..... x
    7...2-1-6 ..... x
    8...1-2-6 ........... #2 $11.20
    9...5-2-1 .......... #2 $ 7.00
    10..5-6-1 .......... #5 $ 5.00
    11..5-1-9 ..... x
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    Nice. Bet $44 and get back $57.40.

    $2.60 $Net
  • mikesal57
    61


    thxs Dave....

    Would like to know "other" betting strategies to optimize my profits...
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