• mikesal57
    61
    Topped off a good day....a little disappointing the Late DD paid less than the 9-1 winnerdx88w7p0pv1mgxoi.jpg
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    That's great!

    Keep this going.
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Gino, the sun eventually came out at EMD, but the sun was shining on my Early Spring NM EMD swarms. It handicapped five races and three were in the top two of my contender swarm and four of five were in my top three pace swarm. It's early in my swarm adventure, but I believe in the concept enough to move forward.

    I should give a shout out to the FTS object that I believe Kev Roc created and shared. It brought me a 7/1 shot firster in the fourth for a $126 exacta! Thanks Kev Roc and Mike S for bringing that to my attention earlier this year!!!
  • mikesal57
    61
    :up:


    You can do better....get them in top 2

    eeb4cda1z3abmgfc.jpg
    cs3cwco26w9zv1yy.jpg
  • Kevroc
    18
    I love this stuff, but I must say I cannot take credit for the FTS object. That one was passed to me by Dexter.. But, I do adore it. :)
  • dchinton
    4
    Thank you for the complement. As i remember, there were quite a few good things passed around on that original Skype group. Good to hear your doing well.
    dch
    04/23
    17:22.31..31
  • mikesal57
    61
    Thank you guys...the thing is .....when a FTS is bet & ranked near the top...I have to really think about playing the race....with that I tend to stay low...BUT....If its high odds I have to think about exactas..

    mr. dexter....why dont you join us :smile:
  • Joe Muller
    22
    I understand the concept and what the swarms are supposed to do, but am still working on getting the hang of the "mechanics" of working them in HSH. Have listened to the videos and gone back to different parts of them several times just to make sure I'm getting it. My EMD swarm, mentioned earlier, is not trained well and was just for practice, but am working on a more serious swarm now. May have to hit this thread up with "how to" questions if I run into more roadblocks. Thanks Mike for bringing this subject back to life for HSH users!
  • mikesal57
    61
    Keep in mind...maybe EMD doesnt Swarm well :grimace:

    Like I said before....Its a stand alone system...IMO....
    I tried to make it a HCP to my aML...didnt work
    or maybe I just hit it on all cylinders.
    Its not just the swarm......

    its how its put all together...
  • Dave Schwartz
    46


    That will change at the seminar.
  • mikesal57
    61
    Working on getting reports now with swarm info.....nf2j79tufj4om4m2.jpg
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Interesting Mike! My swarms came up with the following for those EMD races:

    Race 4: 6,8,2
    Race 6: 4,7,3
    Race 7: 8,2,5

    Curious how they turn out today. Am actually going out to EMD itself tomorrow. Post your swarms for that day too, if you would like. We can compare again.
    Joe
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Here are my swarm horses for tomorrow at EMD:

    Race 1: 4,2,6
    Race 3: 1,4,2
    Race 4: 5,3,4
    Race 6: 5,3,4
    Race 7: 1,7,4
    Race 8: 1,8,4

    Joe
  • mikesal57
    61
    Joe...dont like results and I'm sure its because the meet is young tonites will be the 3rd card of the meet....not good for determining recent races for trend & swarms....gonna pass on picks....
    Good Luck tonight

    mike
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Makes sense! I've created a filter for these early in the season races that I hope , along with swarms, provides some better guidance. It's a crapshoot of Portland Meadow's shippers (play against when possible), CA shippers who can't make it there (often a good bet) and layoff horses from EMD (a mixed bag). My swarms are based on fairly small sample, so could be a problem, but am not relying on them solely. Anyway, it's supposed to be a sunny day with Mt. Rainier out in full force, making it a great way to spend a Sunday afternoon.
    Take care and good luck on your other plays today.
    Joe
  • Joe Muller
    22
    OK, so how did my little EMD swarms do on Sunday?

    Race 1: 4,2,6 - winner #6 at 8/1 :up:
    Race 3: 1,4,2 - winner #1 at 1/1 :up:
    Race 4: 5,3,4 - winner #5 at 1/2 :up:
    Race 6: 5,3,4 - winner #6 at 17/1 :down:
    Race 7: 1,7,4 - winner #5 at 3/1 :down:
    Race 8: 1,8,4 - winner #8 at 5/2 :up:

    I picked 4 out of 6, which included two very strong favorites, a longer shot and a 5/2 shot. I expect to have some strong favorites in the swarms as they do win races and when they're obvious I would like the swarms to find them. But, I also want moderate prices to show up as well to help carry the profit load. Anyway, still learning and working on fine tuning this part of HSH into my handicapping.
    Joe
  • mikesal57
    61


    For me this would have been a loss..
    playing top 2 is more preferred than top 3.....

    Heres my numbers...I dont like to go beyond Top 2 ...But this might
    work for you ...bet A+ Horses???

    myjkb6wrtqrblu0w.jpg
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Unfortunately my swarm isn't as good as yours yet Mike. I still wouldn't have had the #6. Am still developing the swarms though.

    EMD06: Dutch
    Bet= 15 Rebate=0%
    Prg Odds Bet Return |Prg C Odds Pct R $Net Opt% Gr
    | 4 C 4.50 24.9% $2.74 8.2 A+
    | 3 C 2.80 25.9% $1.97 -0.5 B+
    | 1 f 14.00 6.2% $1.86 -0.5 B+
    | 5 C 1.50 32.9% $1.65 -11.7 B-
    | 2 12.30 4.4% $1.17 -3.4 F
    | 7 5.10 3.5% $0.43 -15.4 F
    | 6 17.70 2.2% $0.82 -3.3 F
  • Joe Muller
    22
    The funny thing though Mike is that my generic Non-Maiden Swarm liked the # 6 much better. Maybe EMD is too "thin" this time of year to use a track specific swarm. Will have to look at that.

    EMD06: Dutch
    Bet= 15 Rebate=0%
    Prg Odds Bet Return |Prg C Odds Pct R $Net Opt% Gr
    | 4 C 4.50 34.5% $3.80 20.0 A+
    | 6 17.70 5.4% $2.02 0.1 A-
    | 5 C 1.50 31.4% $1.57 -14.3 C+
    | 3 C 2.80 15.4% $1.17 -14.8 F
    | 7 f 5.10 5.9% $0.72 -12.6 F
    | 1 14.00 3.8% $1.14 -3.1 F
    | 2 12.30 3.6% $0.96 -4.2 F
  • Joe Muller
    22
    The generic swarm for races 1 & 3 had A rating for the winners (6, 1) as did the EMD swarm, but in race 4 the very odds on winner #5 was an F for the generic and a C- for the EMD specific swarm. More work to be done!
  • Kevroc
    18
    FTS object crushes at 8:1

    fh1g0qogioga895x.png
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Love that object!!!
  • mikesal57
    61
    Going to throw this out to you guys....maybe you can do races that I dont....its FTS Object that I made...Hit todays CD race #1.....The 4 went off 4-1 , blew out odds on #1...the first Object is Kev's
    pvhu6lmd7i2au68a.jpg
    lrcmmu6sf57se8yo.jpg
    mddhokx6bk4wrivk.jpg
    d8qkh624ls56purb.jpg
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Mike, Here's one I've been playing with to use as a companion with Dexter's FTS object that we all love: Similar results to yours, but it de-emphasizes real long shots, while not shorting mid-range horses that have good trainer/jockey and work data.

    ar1mppc4uor6w34x.jpg
    02zrkx2kzowvslal.jpg
  • Joe Muller
    22
    KevRoc, Here's my FTS object looking at your Tampa 7th the other day. I like that it also emphasizes the long shot firster. It has some of Dexter's factors in it, but emphasized differently. Anyway, always trying to improve.
    Joe M.
    33h506ux66q0gse1.jpg
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    Guys, I love this stuff. Just want to give you a small warning about the factor called ODDS PCT. (In case you're not aware.)

    That factor is based upon FINAL ODDS, something that is easy to get after the fact but completely unavailable before the horses are in the winner's circle. If you are using this when you play live just be aware.

    Even Bigger Warning
    Furthermore, if you are not updating the tote board at all when you play live, that ODDS PCT factor will be based entirely upon the MORNING LINE!
  • dchinton
    4
    I've been reading this thread and I complement the 'outside the box' thinking. I've been utilizing swarms for quite a few years now and have had a very positive response in defining them as 'very good' as third-party complementers. Especially in the sprint (i.e., 5.0, 5.5, 6.0 and 6.5 furlong races). At the time of starting my swarm research/development I had a database commencing in January of 2007. Because of the DB size, I was able to create multiple 'swarms' for each of the distances. I have always had at least three (3) 6.0 furlong swarms each made up of of random races from the available time period. Each race used only once. Never duplicated in a second swarm.

    I have always used these swarms to 'confirm' or 'test' selections and contenders. I never thought as
    'swarms' as a wagering (or even a contender) selector.

    Over the years I have gleaned many 'positive' confirmations. Yes, many of these positive confirmations were low priced horses outside my wagering guidelines (not surprising). However, I did find horses, median odds and above, that I liked, that received a three out of three or a two out of three. Well worth the effort.

    I wish all great success, not with just swarms, but with all aspects of understanding this industry.

    dch
    05/02
    22:14.31..31

    NOTE: It is pleasing to see the return of Prof Gino. Not just for his 'world view' of traffic patterns
    in Ethiopia, but because he is a link to the 'olden days of Druther, Buzz, Slider, Win, JackAd,
    Mr. Husker, JStone, etc. For those that may remember Kay Kyser, the Professor at the
    Kollege of Musical Knowledge, this Prof has many of the same traits (but he can't sing).
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