• Joe Muller
    22
    Thanks Dave, I forgot that! Will look to adjust the object.
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Glad to hear that someone has been using swarms for awhile and find them valuable. I know it was a hot topic about five years ago with HSH users, based on the videos from 2014, but it seemed that no one took them to completion.

    I really think this technology has value and want to work it into my handicapping. I've been playing this game long enough to believe that more than one approach is needed to gain an edge in the game. It looks like swarms are not something others will be using anytime soon, therefore should be valuable if created and utilized properly.

    Thanks for the post DCHinton and I appreciate that Gino and his wisdom is back as well. Best of luck if your playing Churchill this weekend!
    Joe M.
  • mikesal57
    61
    Hi Joe.....

    As Dave mentioned...I too saw your 472 and said Oh Oh......I dont use anything that says odds in it...LOL
    Anyway I took your FTS Object and ran it against 2019 maiden races (all types) and I'm sad to say yours did slightly worse than my low 1.70's.....Kev/Dex came in at 1.87 ROI for #1 position , which is great...I might have to break-out surf/dist next run....
    heres your numbers...
    jbhw9vqf6uw0wt4l.jpg

    Kev/Dex
    52ud8bnsx7frx0n9.jpg
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Thanks Mike, I appreciate the feedback. Yours was in low 1.70"s? How bad was mine LOL? Will go back to Dexter and continue working on Swarms.
  • Joe Muller
    22
    dch, I think I am looking too narrowly (thinly) with my swarms. As Mike has pointed out with my EMD swarms. I have a large database and could expand the timeframe, even for track specific swarms, but am wondering if you ever have done track specific swarms, by race type and if that was something you thought had merit? What would you say is the minimum race size a swarm should have?
    Joe M.
  • mikesal57
    61
    Oaklawn 2NDyaka6no1xtuskhcv.jpg
    m7evmts8cnwoazrv.jpg
  • dchinton
    4
    As I mentioned previously, because I utilized 'swarms' as a 'tester' or 'for selection confirmation' I felt that getting Track specific was perhaps a bit to granular. While I had a very large DB to select races from in the aggregate at a distance, I never had real confidence in the annual (or seasonal) specific track at a distance research. Perhaps because I have been around so long, and have seen how tracks can very so much from season / year, I didn't have the confidence at that level. It is important to point out, 'that this is my opinion, not a result of actual factual research'. (NOTE: I never considered the 'race type' or 'race level' analysis (again to granular). However, I did stay with what I defined as the ATM track level(s) of 4, 7, & 10, used a field size of six (6) or greater and no MSW or MC races).

    As for size, I tried to stay with at least a 10K plus number. My three (3) 6f sprint swarm were all above 12.5K. (These of course were 'Dirt", not including Poly.) I aggregated Poly sprints in a specific swarm to get a larger base DB. It appeared to function well, however I don't have specific statistics or detailed research to officially back this 'opinion' up. I am of the opinion that Poly and Dirt are nowhere near correlated. (My opinion again).

    As for turf, I worked a bit with these races. However as I mentioned earlier, I am old, and opinionated (as I am sure you see in my writing). For turf, I go back to my discussion(s) with Phil Johnson where as he articulated,'turf races are different, how can pure number research be really reliable, when the times vary so and the name of the game is to get in as good a position as possible at the head of the stretch, to be part of the cavalry charge to the line' (I paraphrase, not quote, a long time ago).

    While I appreciate your questions (stroking of ones ego is always a positive), please don't look at what I have done as any more than 'an opinion'. What I speak about is factual, but not to be confused with an extreme knowledge, or of any expertise. I, like you, saw something in this 'swarm' concept. Others may very well disagree. Kind of like the world we live in.

    Thank you.

    dch
    05/03
    20:54.31..31
  • Joe Muller
    22
    dch, I appreciate your feedback and opinion. I don't know any "horseplayers" who aren't opinionated. The success comes by being both opinionated (confident in your handicapping) yet not being too stubborn about your own opinions and being willing to hear what others have to say so you can improve. Let your words come out on this board dch, as at least those of us on here are listening and value the interaction.
    Have a great weekend!
    Joe M.
  • Dave Schwartz
    46
    I don't know any "horseplayers" who aren't opinionated.Joe Muller

    True dis.
  • mikesal57
    61
    I was doing others things till I noticed that CD was Fast/Firm and that first 6 races were double digit winners....So I played the 7TH...:)
    It might hurt but I'll look at the other 6

    cqvzycid91qva4f6.jpg

    swaz2hl3zw6rznup.jpg
  • mikesal57
    61


    Thxs...would have had Derby winner :(
  • mikesal57
    61
    Joe....

    Lets put up a track and compare

    I'll select one later ( dry & fast...its pouring here in NY today)
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Sounds good. Let me know which one.
  • mikesal57
    61


    lets do Gulfstream....
  • Joe Muller
    22
    OK, will put it together and post.
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Mike, As I've mentioned before, I have a Pace and Non-Pace swarm available and am posting both of those for the races that I have swarms for at GP. Sorry for the funny sizing of the jpg files. I think this is what you meant by us posting our races for GP.
    n2tsot9v75862zlv.jpg
    89ydi82pquvet5gr.jpg
    qya7e9c4w0oqaaf1.jpg
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Mike, based on my swarms, Races 7 & 8 look like the most playable to me, but I would also have interest in the #10 horse in the tenth race. Races 2,3,4 look too chalky to me, so I would pass those.
  • mikesal57
    61
    GP

    play 1 & 2....3rd is for a scratch

    1...2-5-1
    2...1-5-4
    3...9-3-8
    4...4-5-6
    5...6-3-8
    6...6-1-2
    7...7-6-1
    8...4-3-(5-2)
    9...1-5-7
    10..6-10-8

    NOTES:
    Race #1....The 4 has good FTS & trying turf first time..
    Race #2....#1 best fig last out...bounce? Sleeper pick #6
    Race #3...#3 top fig last out...bounce.... #9 good pedigree?
    Race #5...Sleeper #8
    Race #6....#4 I have FTS top...Kev FTS last...interesting
    Race #8......#4 Good breeding moving up.......#5 ran top last out
    Race 9...#1 ran TOP fig last out...bounce?
  • mikesal57
    61


    Thxs Joe....& good luck!!

    Thxs for the pace one....my belief is that its not that good...lets see
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Interesting that I have the #4 in the sixth as an FTS top as well in my non-KevRoc FTS object.
  • mikesal57
    61
    GREAT START!!!
  • mikesal57
    61
    Race 2...

    Does running TOP fig in last good for a bounce? in this case YES
    xf0r52sxoja68btv.jpg

    Dont ask me why I did 6 as a sleeper when the 3 was top pedigree wise
    dzoygld876by2nxt.jpg

    So as you see after I do my swarms...i then look at PED
  • mikesal57
    61
    Race 3 becomes a HIT after scratches
    e1kds2uqtnx91vge.jpg
  • mikesal57
    61
    Race 4 hurts after getting a beatable 3/5 favorite and a bomb beats my 4 :(
  • Joe Muller
    22
    Yeah, that #3 bomb in the 4th would have blown up my pick 3, if I had played it. Happy about the 3 and 4 in races 2,3 though!
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