Running Styles in NewCap.. It's a Matter of Trust
I find that using the RS "points" to find the model (3+,2,1,0) is useful, yet...
How do know when to "trust" the RS fig?
Let's say today's race is 6f on the dirt and last out a runner went to the front going 8f on grass? Is that horse an E?
What criteria is used to make that fig, and how can we judge or make modifications to be confident enough to reasonably believe the runner can run to that style?
We know sometimes instructions will be to send or rate and horses are not always going to run back to their style, but we'd like to thread the needle close enough to have reasonable confidence.
I don't rely on the RS points as my only determinant of how the pace of the race may set up. I have that to compare with some New Pace % stuff and recently am looking at an average of factors 2001,2002,2010 2011,2019 and 2020. Which are F1 and EP of the last three races.
There are too many things that can impact the outcome of one race to rely on it alone to drive a pace of race view, in my opinion, so am moving toward a group of "tendency" views to give me that.
I also do an average of the SC and FT factors in the same factor group for possible late runners.
It's all a rabbit hole I'm enjoying working on.
Great post and response!
Without looking at the race conditions, the form of the horse and speed I wouldn't put much stock in any sort of pace analysis. If a horse is the top PSR or FT of some sort and top form rated horse with a good trainer - pace analysis be damned.
Can you give us an example of an analysis such as that? What are you looking for in Race Conditions?
APOLLO CREED OR THE APOSTLES CREED
Yo KEVROC re: "Trust" and numbers, it seems to me that the trusting aspect of handicapping
has some spectrum of sorts, depending on your bent....BLACK BOXERS like big data and push
button capping and tend to view this race and this bet in light of A Big Picture....former altar boy
types (St Gino The Eyeballer) use faith based handicapping numbers applicable to the here and
once upon a time DS published how he had coded Quirin's Speed Points....i have spent many, many
hours "behind the numbers" (apologies to VH1) acoustically making peace with the H$H interpretation
of Quirin's work, and find that DS managed to make a very workable (and testable) version of
what the good doctor was getting at, more or less....there are many interpretations of his work,
for instance some very renowned authors believe that only QP 6 and above matter, and a younger and
more flippant Gino once said " if it's a 7, bet The Fives"...(strangely enough that still works)(sorta)...
dos centavos- any veteran of domestic wars will tell you that the little bickering fights always
linger on, same deal with data points, small flaws become big deals when they are extrapolated
in their unexamined state...if i accept some piggle who is in a NW2L race as a QP7 as a likely
forwardly placed runner, i do so knowing full well that being somewhere near the lead may be all
he does, or has done, the reality being that getting to the front on the backstretch or changing leads at
the head of the lane is not really guaranteed by his Seven designation, nor is there any free money based on statistical evidence that QP Sevens look good in your filter, unless your filter is insanely
specific...mine being mostly semi-insane....
blah blah blah...
a sidebar response to DS's query to Og....i think the race conditions are the most important
piece of info extant...certain conditions give an edge to certain entrants, ignoring (or not knowing)
who is what to who is like using Esperanto or Pig Latin to navigate your way across Spain, or
Oklahoma, even if you are Leon Russell...
as Joe says "tendencies",or i say "ranges", having faith in the numbers you are betting on is a
nuanced life spent finding winners somewhere between obvious and salient, crisscrossed by
hidden talent (best two of last three) and trainer intent (last race), oh yeah, and that reynolds
number that is the square root of drugs x luck...
TAM 04- thank gawd for Burkey's Babe!!
muchasmuchisimas for TAM in general.....
over and out...
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